Porto 5-0 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 20 Jan 2024

Porto
5-0 HT 1-0
Moreirense
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Porto vs Moreirense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.34
Away
21%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.99
No
48%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.74
2-3 Goals
37%
1.81
4-5 Goals
27%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.67
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X EV+ ✗
11%
19.95
X/1
13%
3.4
X/2
9%
14.9
X/X
9%
6.37
2/1
8%
23.0
2/2
7%
12.3
2/X
5%
20.75
Value flag · 1/X at 19.95 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
67%
-12.5pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.6pp
21%
Away Win
13%
+8.0pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+0.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-0.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
54%
-5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Porto v Moreirense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Porto EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 16%
+10% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +4%
2.13/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/2.16
+14% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
371 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 73%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
20.5 Crosses 13.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.2

Porto vs Moreirense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Porto
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Moreirense
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
2.81 xG 0.49
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
447 Passes 202
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
33 Box Touches 9
19 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.08.2023 Moreirense Moreirense 1-2 HT 0-0 Porto Porto POR
20.02.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
19.09.2021 Porto Porto 5-0 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
26.04.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 1-0 Porto Porto POR
04.01.2021 Porto Porto 3-0 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
03.01.2021 Porto Porto 3-0 HT 1-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR

Porto 5-0 Moreirense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Porto
5-0
AWAY Moreirense
2.36 xG 0.22
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 1
498 Passes 237
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 6
16 Crosses 2
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Porto vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto ran out comfortable winners over Moreirense 5-0. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 5-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Porto had 66% of the ball to Moreirense's 34%, shots finished 16-6, expected goals 2.36 to 0.22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Porto and 0.33 for Moreirense.

What was the final score of Porto vs Moreirense?

Porto 5-0 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Porto vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Porto 54%, draw 25%, Moreirense 21%. The final score 5-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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