Estoril 1-2 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 20 Jan 2024

Estoril
1-2 HT 1-2
Arouca
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Estoril vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
31%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.91
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
3.13
6+ Goals
11%
10.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.39
1/2
8%
27.5
1/X
5%
12.55
X/1
13%
5.44
X/2
10%
5.87
X/X
15%
4.95
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
13%
3.78
2/X
8%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+1.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.8pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-3.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.2pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.5pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Estoril v Arouca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 38%
-1% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -1%
1.21/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/1.23
+18% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -2%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
316 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
17.9 Crosses 17.9
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Estoril vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Arouca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.97 xG 1.51
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
323 Passes 320
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
13.08.2023 Arouca Arouca 4-3 HT 1-1 Estoril Estoril POR
15.05.2023 Estoril Estoril 2-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
07.01.2023 Arouca Arouca 2-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
27.01.2022 Estoril Estoril 1-2 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
07.08.2021 Arouca Arouca 0-2 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril POR
02.02.2021 Arouca Arouca 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR2

Estoril 1-2 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
1-2
AWAY Arouca
2.40 xG 1.53
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 4
410 Passes 326
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 7
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca squeezed past Estoril 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Estoril at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Estoril had 55% of the ball to Arouca's 45%, shots finished 16-16, expected goals 2.40 to 1.53 — on chances, Estoril could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Estoril and 1.50 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Arouca?

Estoril 1-2 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Estoril 41%, draw 28%, Arouca 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Estoril), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Estoril) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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