Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Bodrum FK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 20 Jan 2024

Erzurumspor FK
1-0 HT 0-0
Bodrum FK
📅20/01/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Turkey - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Erzurumspor FK vs Bodrum FK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
23%
3.11
Away
45%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.67
Over 2.5
48%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.58
2-3 Goals
47%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.5
6+ Goals
8%
23.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.97
1/2
7%
29.5
1/X
4%
14.25
X/1
12%
6.31
X/2
13%
4.54
X/X
7%
4.01
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
25%
3.15
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.9
Value flag · 2/X at 13.9 — our 12% vs market 4.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+2.4pp
23%
Draw
28%
-5.6pp
45%
Away Win
42%
+3.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-4.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+4.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.7pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Erzurumspor FK v Bodrum FK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzurumspor FK EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Bodrum FK EU Bookmakers 46%
-25% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -17%
1.12/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.01
-41% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
348 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 75%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
19.7 Crosses 13.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.3

Erzurumspor FK vs Bodrum FK Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Bodrum FK
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
0.85 xG 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
237 Passes 243
70% Pass Accuracy 72%
14 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.08.2023 Bodrum FK Bodrum FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
26.03.2023 Bodrum FK Bodrum FK 0-0 HT 0-0 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK T1L
16.10.2022 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 1-2 HT 0-2 Bodrum FK Bodrum FK T1L
30.10.2019 Erzurumspor FK Erzurumspor FK 3-1 HT 2-0 Bodrum FK Bodrum FK TÜK

Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Bodrum FK — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzurumspor FK
1-0
AWAY Bodrum FK
0.92 xG 0.65
67% Ball Possession 33%
13 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 3
360 Passes 137
80% Pass Accuracy 61%
14 Box Touches 8
26 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Erzurumspor FK vs Bodrum FK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzurumspor FK nicked a narrow win over Bodrum FK 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Bodrum FK at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Erzurumspor FK had 67% of the ball to Bodrum FK's 33%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 0.92 to 0.65.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Erzurumspor FK and 0.75 for Bodrum FK.

What was the final score of Erzurumspor FK vs Bodrum FK?

Erzurumspor FK 1-0 Bodrum FK in the Turkey - 1st Division on 20/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzurumspor FK vs Bodrum FK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bodrum FK win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Erzurumspor FK 32%, draw 23%, Bodrum FK 45%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Bodrum FK) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bodrum FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
T1L More Turkey - 1st Division
20 Jan 2024
16:00 Boluspor vs Bandırmaspor Analysis →
19:00 Kocaelispor vs Eyüpspor Analysis →