Bahardar 0-1 Ethiopian Insurance — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 20 Jan 2025

📅20/01/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.47
Draw
30%
2.66
Away
26%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
Over 2.5
31%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.4
No
63%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
44%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
18%
X/X
16%
2/1
6%
2/2
4%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
37%
+7.0pp
30%
Draw
34%
-4.4pp
26%
Away Win
29%
-2.7pp
37%
BTTS Yes
38%
-0.6pp
63%
BTTS No
62%
+0.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahardar EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Ethiopian Insurance EU Bookmakers 32%
+35% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +37% / +37%
1.96/0.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/0.00
+89% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +99% /
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
247 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahardar
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Ethiopian Insurance
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 3
16.01.2025 Ethiopian Insurance Ethiopian Insurance 2-0 Bahardar Bahardar ETH
29.02.2024 Bahardar Bahardar 0-0 HT 0-0 Ethiopian Insurance Ethiopian Insurance ETH
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahardar
0-1
AWAY Ethiopian Insurance
46% Ball Possession 54%
4 Total Shots 6
0 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Bahardar vs Ethiopian Insurance
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ethiopian Insurance edged past Bahardar 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Bahardar at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (69%), no to both teams scoring (63%) came in.

On the day, Bahardar had 46% of the ball to Ethiopian Insurance's 54%, shots finished 4-6.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ethiopian Insurance led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Bahardar and 1.00 for Ethiopian Insurance.

What was the final score of Bahardar vs Ethiopian Insurance?

Bahardar 0-1 Ethiopian Insurance in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 20/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahardar vs Ethiopian Insurance?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahardar win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Bahardar 44%, draw 30%, Ethiopian Insurance 26%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Bahardar) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bahardar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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