Queretaro 3-2 Pumas UNAM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 Jan 2025

📅20/01/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
3.75
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
46%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.62
Over 2.5
35%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.43
2-3 Goals
37%
1.72
4-5 Goals
19%
4.35
6+ Goals
6%
23.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.43 — our 38% vs market 33.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
8%
X/2
19%
X/X
16%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
23%
-1.6pp
32%
Draw
28%
+4.1pp
46%
Away Win
49%
-2.6pp
65%
Under 2.5
58%
+7.4pp
35%
Over 2.5
42%
-7.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.2pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Queretaro EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Pumas UNAM EU Bookmakers 53%
-2% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.16/1.55 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/0.94
-13% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +81%
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
260 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 79%
19.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
19.4 Crosses 19.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Queretaro
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Pumas UNAM
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.73 xG 1.91
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
223 Passes 406
72% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.11.2024 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 2-0 HT 1-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
27.04.2024 Queretaro Queretaro 1-1 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
05.10.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 4-0 HT 2-0 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
04.08.2023 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 0-1 HT 0-0 Queretaro Queretaro CONLK
03.04.2023 Queretaro Queretaro 1-0 HT 0-0 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM MEK
08.09.2022 Pumas UNAM Pumas UNAM 4-1 HT 1-1 Queretaro Queretaro MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Queretaro
3-2
AWAY Pumas UNAM
0.62 xG 1.71
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 6
193 Passes 423
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
12 Box Touches 24
6 Crosses 34
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Queretaro vs Pumas UNAM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Queretaro squeezed past Pumas UNAM 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Pumas UNAM at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Queretaro had 34% of the ball to Pumas UNAM's 66%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 0.62 to 1.71 — the balance of chances actually favoured Pumas UNAM.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pumas UNAM led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Queretaro and 1.83 for Pumas UNAM.

What was the final score of Queretaro vs Pumas UNAM?

Queretaro 3-2 Pumas UNAM in the Mexico - Primera on 20/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Queretaro vs Pumas UNAM?

Before kick-off our model rated an Pumas UNAM win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Queretaro 22%, draw 32%, Pumas UNAM 46%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pumas UNAM) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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