UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
UD Oliveirense v Penafiel — Team-Based Signals
UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 2-1
Penafiel
POR2
1-1
HT 0-1
UD Oliveirense
POR2
1-1
HT 1-1
Penafiel
POR2
1-0
HT 0-0
UD Oliveirense
POR2
UD Oliveirense 2-2 Penafiel — Actual Match Statistics
UD Oliveirense and Penafiel couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Penafiel at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, UD Oliveirense had 43% of the ball to Penafiel's 57%, shots finished 6-8, expected goals 1.16 to 1.29.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Penafiel led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for UD Oliveirense and 1.50 for Penafiel.
What was the final score of UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel?
UD Oliveirense 2-2 Penafiel in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 20/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for UD Oliveirense vs Penafiel?
Before kick-off our model rated an Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split UD Oliveirense 26%, draw 28%, Penafiel 46%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.