Penafiel vs UD Oliveirense Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Penafiel v UD Oliveirense — Team-Based Signals
Penafiel vs UD Oliveirense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 2-1
Penafiel
POR2
1-1
HT 0-1
UD Oliveirense
POR2
1-1
HT 1-1
Penafiel
POR2
1-0
HT 0-0
UD Oliveirense
POR2
2-1
HT 0-0
Penafiel
POR2
Penafiel 4-3 UD Oliveirense — Actual Match Statistics
Penafiel nicked a narrow win over UD Oliveirense 4-3. It was 2-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Penafiel as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Penafiel had 48% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 52%, shots finished 10-13.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, UD Oliveirense led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Penafiel and 1.33 for UD Oliveirense.
What was the final score of Penafiel vs UD Oliveirense?
Penafiel 4-3 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Penafiel vs UD Oliveirense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 44%, draw 27%, UD Oliveirense 29%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penafiel) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.