Penafiel 4-3 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 11 Aug 2024

📅11/08/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
29%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.76
No
53%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.14
2-3 Goals
43%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.73
6+ Goals
9%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 27% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.8pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+3.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 29%
-5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +1%
1.37/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.75
-9% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -17%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
24.2 Crosses 16.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
1W-3D-2L
AWAY UD Oliveirense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.37 xG 0.88
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 262
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2024 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
27.08.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 3-1 HT 2-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
04.03.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 0-1 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
09.09.2022 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 1-1 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
03.03.2021 Penafiel Penafiel 1-0 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
18.09.2020 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
4-3
AWAY UD Oliveirense
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 7
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel nicked a narrow win over UD Oliveirense 4-3. It was 2-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Penafiel as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Penafiel had 48% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 52%, shots finished 10-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, UD Oliveirense led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Penafiel and 1.33 for UD Oliveirense.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs UD Oliveirense?

Penafiel 4-3 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 11/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 44%, draw 27%, UD Oliveirense 29%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Penafiel) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Penafiel) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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