Boavista 2-3 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 20 Jan 2025

📅20/01/2025 · 🕒23:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.5
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.54
Over
45%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.06
No
52%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.31
2-3
46%
1.75
4-5
17%
4.88
6+
8%
29.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.38
1/2
7%
31.0
1/X
13%
15.1
X/1
8%
7.5
X/2
21%
4.42
X/X
9%
3.77
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.83
2/X
7%
13.95
Value flag · 1/X at 15.1 — our 13% vs market 3.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
27%
Home Win
25%
+1.8pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.2pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-1.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
61%
-6.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
39%
+6.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
44%
+3.4pp
52%
BTTS No
56%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boavista The Market 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia The Market 49%
-4% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-14% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
251 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 386 · 82%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.3 Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boavista
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Casa Pia
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.03 xG 0.80
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
379 Passes 346
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-0 Boavista Boavista POR
05.02.2024 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Boavista Boavista POR
27.08.2023 Boavista Boavista 1-1 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
14.02.2023 Boavista Boavista 0-0 HT 0-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
21.08.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 2-0 HT 0-0 Boavista Boavista POR
03.08.2019 Casa Pia Casa Pia 2-0 HT 0-0 Boavista Boavista PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boavista
2-3
AWAY Casa Pia
1.16 xG 1.35
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 3
221 Passes 484
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
12 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Boavista vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia nicked a narrow win over Boavista 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Casa Pia as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Boavista had 36% of the ball to Casa Pia's 64%, shots finished 10-9, expected goals 1.16 to 1.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Casa Pia led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Boavista and 0.83 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Boavista vs Casa Pia?

Boavista 2-3 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 20/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boavista vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Boavista 27%, draw 29%, Casa Pia 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Casa Pia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Casa Pia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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