AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Crawley Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 20 Feb 2024

AFC Wimbledon
0-1 HT 0-0
Crawley Town
📅20/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.75
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.1
Over 2.5
56%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.07
2-3 Goals
37%
1.85
4-5 Goals
29%
3.08
6+ Goals
12%
9.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.1
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.2
X/1
13%
4.12
X/2
8%
10.05
X/X
10%
5.63
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
21.45
2/2
13%
7.25
2/X
5%
14.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
53%
-4.7pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.1pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.8pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AFC Wimbledon v Crawley Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 26%
-11% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +7%
1.65/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.58
+37% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -8%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
293 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 71%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
22.7 Crosses 15.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0

AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Crawley Town
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.01 xG 0.94
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
288 Passes 285
71% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.12.2023 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-2 HT 0-2 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
18.03.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-1 HT 0-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
20.09.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 3-2 HT 1-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İNTK
20.08.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 0-2 HT 0-2 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
29.11.2020 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-2 HT 1-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town FAK
16.04.2016 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 1-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2

AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Crawley Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
0-1
AWAY Crawley Town
1.63 xG 1.37
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 5
203 Passes 326
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crawley Town nicked a narrow win over AFC Wimbledon 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was AFC Wimbledon at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 42% of the ball to Crawley Town's 58%, shots finished 14-15, expected goals 1.63 to 1.37.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AFC Wimbledon had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.00 for Crawley Town.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town?

AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Crawley Town in the England - 2nd Division on 20/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Crawley Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 48%, draw 24%, Crawley Town 27%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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