Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 Wrexham — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 20 Feb 2024

Milton Keynes Dons
1-1 HT 1-1
Wrexham
📅20/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Milton Keynes Dons vs Wrexham Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.03
Over 2.5
55%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.61
No
42%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.9
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.16
6+ Goals
12%
10.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.96
1/2
10%
31.0
1/X
8%
12.85
X/1
13%
4.93
X/2
10%
6.63
X/X
10%
5.04
2/1 EV+ ✗
16%
24.0
2/2
12%
4.48
2/X
8%
13.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.0 — our 16% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
44%
-1.7pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.5pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.3pp
45%
Under 2.5
45%
-0.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
55%
+0.3pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.0pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Milton Keynes Dons v Wrexham — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Milton Keynes Dons EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Wrexham EU Bookmakers 34%
+12% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.73/1.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.31
+64% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
316 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 68%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
10.8 Crosses 20.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.7

Milton Keynes Dons vs Wrexham Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Wrexham
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
The Meetings
05.08.2023 Wrexham Wrexham 3-5 HT 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
08.04.2008 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 4-1 HT 2-0 Wrexham Wrexham İN2
19.01.2008 Wrexham Wrexham 1-0 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
17.03.2007 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 HT 1-1 Wrexham Wrexham İN2
14.10.2006 Wrexham Wrexham 1-2 HT 1-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN2
26.02.2005 Wrexham Wrexham 0-0 HT 0-0 Milton Keynes Dons Milton Keynes Dons İN1

Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 Wrexham — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Milton Keynes Dons
1-1
AWAY Wrexham
1.10 xG 1.48
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 18
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
463 Passes 323
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
9 Box Touches 32
7 Crosses 32
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Milton Keynes Dons vs Wrexham
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milton Keynes Dons and Wrexham shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Milton Keynes Dons at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (58%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Milton Keynes Dons had 56% of the ball to Wrexham's 44%, shots finished 11-18, expected goals 1.10 to 1.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milton Keynes Dons had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Milton Keynes Dons and 1.17 for Wrexham.

What was the final score of Milton Keynes Dons vs Wrexham?

Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 Wrexham in the England - 2nd Division on 20/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Milton Keynes Dons vs Wrexham?

Before kick-off our model rated a Milton Keynes Dons win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Milton Keynes Dons 42%, draw 26%, Wrexham 32%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milton Keynes Dons) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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