Motagua 1-4 FC Cincinnati — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF Champions League, 20 Feb 2025

📅20/02/2025 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.8
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
41%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.54
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
3.08
6+ Goals
7%
10.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.54 — our 28% vs market 21.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
9%
1/X
8%
X/1
6%
X/2
17%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
32%
-1.7pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.5pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.8pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motagua EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Cincinnati EU Bookmakers 45%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-18% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
309 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 81%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
30.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motagua
1-4
AWAY FC Cincinnati
1.15 xG 1.54
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 2
261 Passes 307
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
13 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Motagua vs FC Cincinnati
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Cincinnati cruised past Motagua 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had FC Cincinnati as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Motagua had 49% of the ball to FC Cincinnati's 51%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.15 to 1.54.

What was the final score of Motagua vs FC Cincinnati?

Motagua 1-4 FC Cincinnati in the CONCACAF Champions League on 20/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motagua vs FC Cincinnati?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Cincinnati win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Motagua 30%, draw 28%, FC Cincinnati 41%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FC Cincinnati), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (FC Cincinnati) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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