Club America 1-1 Leon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 Feb 2025

Club America
1-1 HT 1-1
Leon
📅20/02/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2024/2025

Club America vs Leon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.73
No
53%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.09
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
2.82
6+ Goals
11%
8.28
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.09 — our 26% vs market 18.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-7.7pp
23%
Draw
21%
+2.2pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+10.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-10.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
54%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
46%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Club America v Leon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Club America EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Leon EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.83/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.76
+14% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +10%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
324 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 79%
25.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
19.2 Crosses 12.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5

Club America vs Leon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Club America
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Leon
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.88 xG 0.99
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
420 Passes 291
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
06.10.2024 Leon Leon 1-1 HT 1-0 Club America Club America MEK
11.02.2024 Leon Leon 0-1 HT 0-0 Club America Club America MEK
03.12.2023 Club America Club America 2-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
30.11.2023 Leon Leon 2-2 HT 2-1 Club America Club America MEK
27.08.2023 Club America Club America 1-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
02.04.2023 Club America Club America 2-2 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK

Club America 1-1 Leon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Club America
1-1
AWAY Leon
1.11 xG 0.88
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 2
438 Passes 317
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
25 Box Touches 7
13 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Club America vs Leon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Club America and Leon shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match lean was Club America at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Club America had 56% of the ball to Leon's 44%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.11 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Club America had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Club America and 1.00 for Leon.

What was the final score of Club America vs Leon?

Club America 1-1 Leon in the Mexico - Primera on 20/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Club America vs Leon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Club America win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Club America 53%, draw 23%, Leon 23%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Club America), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Club America) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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