Leon 0-1 Club America — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.94
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
45%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.03
Over 2.5
54%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.61
No
46%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.86
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
27%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
10.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
17%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
22%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
31%
-0.1pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
45%
Away Win
44%
+1.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.0pp
54%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.0pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leon EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Club America EU Bookmakers 48%
-2% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +22%
1.39/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.10
+12% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +25% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
288 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 78%
20.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
18.6 Crosses 19.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leon
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Club America
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.14 xG 1.69
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
302 Passes 399
81% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 26
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.12.2023 Club America Club America 2-0 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
30.11.2023 Leon Leon 2-2 HT 2-1 Club America Club America MEK
27.08.2023 Club America Club America 1-1 HT 0-0 Leon Leon MEK
02.04.2023 Club America Club America 2-2 HT 0-1 Leon Leon MEK
01.08.2022 Leon Leon 3-2 HT 1-1 Club America Club America MEK
23.06.2022 Club America Club America 5-2 HT 4-0 Leon Leon HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Leon
0-1
AWAY Club America
1.07 xG 2.70
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 13
259 Passes 390
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 37
20 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Leon vs Club America
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Club America nicked a narrow win over Leon 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Club America as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Leon had 41% of the ball to Club America's 59%, shots finished 16-20, expected goals 1.07 to 2.70 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Club America's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Club America led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Leon and 2.33 for Club America.

What was the final score of Leon vs Club America?

Leon 0-1 Club America in the Mexico - Primera on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leon vs Club America?

Before kick-off our model rated an Club America win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Leon 31%, draw 24%, Club America 45%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Club America) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Club America) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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