Guadalajara 2-1 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 11 Feb 2024

Guadalajara
2-1 HT 1-0
FC Juarez
📅11/02/2024 · 🕒02:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Guadalajara vs FC Juarez Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.97
Over 2.5
47%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.57
2-3 Goals
38%
1.79
4-5 Goals
23%
3.3
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.57 — our 29% vs market 22.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
13%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
63%
-10.6pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.4pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
47%
+6.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
53%
-6.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.1pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Guadalajara v FC Juarez — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 19%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -5%
1.63/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.50
-22% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +1%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
422 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 75%
24.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
23.3 Crosses 15.9
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4

Guadalajara vs FC Juarez Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Guadalajara
2W-3D-1L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.32 xG 0.96
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
330 Passes 304
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 15
20 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.08.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-1 HT 0-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
29.01.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-2 HT 0-2 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
03.07.2022 Guadalajara Guadalajara 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
10.02.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-3 HT 1-1 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
08.08.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-2 HT 1-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
31.01.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-2 HT 0-2 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK

Guadalajara 2-1 FC Juarez — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Guadalajara
2-1
AWAY FC Juarez
2.06 xG 1.02
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
508 Passes 248
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Guadalajara vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Guadalajara nicked a narrow win over FC Juarez 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Guadalajara as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Guadalajara had 63% of the ball to FC Juarez's 37%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 2.06 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Guadalajara and 1.17 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Guadalajara vs FC Juarez?

Guadalajara 2-1 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Guadalajara vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Guadalajara win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Guadalajara 52%, draw 26%, FC Juarez 22%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Guadalajara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Guadalajara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MEK More Mexico - Primera
11 Feb 2024
02:00 Necaxa vs Toluca Analysis →
04:00 Leon vs Club America Analysis →
04:05 Cruz Azul vs Atletico San Luis Analysis →
06:10 Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL Analysis →
06:10 Monterrey vs Pachuca Analysis →
21:00 Pumas UNAM vs Puebla Analysis →