Monterrey 3-2 Pachuca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 11 Feb 2024

📅11/02/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.18
Over 2.5
52%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.63
No
47%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.25
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
26%
2.95
6+ Goals
11%
8.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.7pp
24%
Away Win
22%
+1.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
42%
+6.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
58%
-6.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
57%
-4.7pp
47%
BTTS No
43%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monterrey EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Pachuca EU Bookmakers 25%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +9%
1.81/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.62
+4% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -4%
56% Ball Possession 44%
19 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
350 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 261 · 76%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
20.2 Crosses 15.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monterrey
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Pachuca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.06 xG 1.40
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
337 Passes 343
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.11.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 0-2 HT 0-2 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
13.03.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 1-2 HT 1-1 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
24.10.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 0-1 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
21.10.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 5-2 HT 2-2 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
02.10.2022 Monterrey Monterrey 0-0 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
24.04.2022 Pachuca Pachuca 3-0 HT 1-0 Monterrey Monterrey MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monterrey
3-2
AWAY Pachuca
2.33 xG 0.65
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
494 Passes 256
83% Pass Accuracy 75%
34 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monterrey vs Pachuca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monterrey squeezed past Pachuca 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monterrey as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Monterrey had 63% of the ball to Pachuca's 37%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 2.33 to 0.65 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Monterrey's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Monterrey and 1.67 for Pachuca.

What was the final score of Monterrey vs Pachuca?

Monterrey 3-2 Pachuca in the Mexico - Primera on 11/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monterrey vs Pachuca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monterrey win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Monterrey 50%, draw 26%, Pachuca 24%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monterrey), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monterrey) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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