Portland Timbers II 1-2 El Farolito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 20 Mar 2024

📅20/03/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
36%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.38
Over 2.5
45%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.5
No
51%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
23%
X/2
10%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
51%
-14.6pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.5pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+9.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
38%
+17.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
62%
-17.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
62%
-13.1pp
51%
BTTS No
38%
+13.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portland Timbers II EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY El Farolito EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
371 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portland Timbers II
1-2
AWAY El Farolito
1.20 xG 1.79
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 20
3 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 3
233 Passes 258
73% Pass Accuracy 75%
15 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 28
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Portland Timbers II vs El Farolito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Farolito edged past Portland Timbers II 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 36%) promised a tight game; El Farolito found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Portland Timbers II had 48% of the ball to El Farolito's 52%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 1.20 to 1.79.

What was the final score of Portland Timbers II vs El Farolito?

Portland Timbers II 1-2 El Farolito in the USA - Open Cup on 20/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portland Timbers II vs El Farolito?

Before kick-off our model rated a Portland Timbers II win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Portland Timbers II 36%, draw 28%, El Farolito 36%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/28/36) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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