Vermont Green 4-3 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 20 Mar 2024

📅20/03/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.8
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
31%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.23
Over 2.5
45%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.5
No
53%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
17%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
32%
+11.0pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.0pp
31%
Away Win
43%
-12.0pp
55%
Under 2.5
41%
+14.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
59%
-14.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
62%
-15.6pp
53%
BTTS No
38%
+15.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vermont Green EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 48%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
362 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vermont Green
4-3
AWAY Lexington
2.54 xG 2.99
35% Ball Possession 65%
14 Total Shots 19
10 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 3
247 Passes 509
77% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 36
8 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vermont Green vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vermont Green edged past Lexington 4-3. Half-time: 3-1. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Vermont Green as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Vermont Green had 35% of the ball to Lexington's 65%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 2.54 to 2.99 — on chances, Lexington could feel hard done by.

What was the final score of Vermont Green vs Lexington?

Vermont Green 4-3 Lexington in the USA - Open Cup on 20/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vermont Green vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vermont Green win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Vermont Green 43%, draw 26%, Lexington 31%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vermont Green) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vermont Green) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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