Luton Town 1-5 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 20 Apr 2024

Luton Town
1-5 HT 0-2
Brentford
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Luton Town vs Brentford Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.57
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
38%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.07
Over 2.5
54%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.6
No
47%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.99
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
25%
3.12
6+ Goals
12%
10.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.89
1/2
6%
25.5
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
8%
6.04
X/2
14%
5.4
X/X
8%
5.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
28.0
2/2
19%
3.33
2/X
6%
12.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 28.0 — our 8% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
35%
+3.9pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.8pp
38%
Away Win
39%
-0.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.5pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Luton Town v Brentford — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Luton Town EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 43%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.32/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.31
-27% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +15%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
296 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 389 · 80%
32.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.8
33.2 Crosses 15.5
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.4

Luton Town vs Brentford Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Luton Town
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Brentford
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.46 xG 2.61
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 7
234 Passes 427
70% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 34
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Brentford Brentford 3-1 HT 0-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNP
20.01.2021 Brentford Brentford 1-0 HT 1-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
31.10.2020 Luton Town Luton Town 0-3 HT 0-2 Brentford Brentford İNCL
25.02.2020 Luton Town Luton Town 2-1 HT 2-0 Brentford Brentford İNCL
30.11.2019 Brentford Brentford 7-0 HT 5-0 Luton Town Luton Town İNCL
28.07.2015 Luton Town Luton Town 2-1 HT 1-1 Brentford Brentford HAZ

Luton Town 1-5 Brentford — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Luton Town
1-5
AWAY Brentford
0.59 xG 3.14
53% Ball Possession 47%
6 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 9
298 Passes 260
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 37
19 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Luton Town vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brentford cruised past Luton Town 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 23% / 38%) promised a tight game; Brentford found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Luton Town had 53% of the ball to Brentford's 47%, shots finished 6-21, expected goals 0.59 to 3.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brentford led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Luton Town and 2.67 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Luton Town vs Brentford?

Luton Town 1-5 Brentford in the England - Premier League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Luton Town vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Luton Town win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Luton Town 39%, draw 23%, Brentford 38%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Luton Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Luton Town) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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