Lyon (K) 3-2 PSG (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League - Women's, 20 Apr 2024

Lyon (K)
3-2 HT 0-1
PSG (K)
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Champions League - Women's – 2023/2024

Lyon (K) vs PSG (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.53
Draw
29%
3.94
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.11
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.76
6+ Goals
9%
16.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.11 — our 33% vs market 26.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
61%
-12.3pp
29%
Draw
22%
+6.8pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lyon (K) v PSG (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon (K) EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY PSG (K) EU Bookmakers 20%
+24% / +24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
2.17/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.99
+39% / -42% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -15%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
339 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
21.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
14.5 Crosses 15.1
0.7 Yellow Cards 1.9

Lyon (K) vs PSG (K) Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lyon (K)
4W-1D-1L
AWAY PSG (K)
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.47 xG 1.23
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
276 Passes 313
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.02.2024 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) 1-1 HT 0-0 PSG (K) PSG (K) FRK1
30.04.2022 PSG (K) PSG (K) 1-2 HT 0-1 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) ŞMP-K
24.04.2022 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) 3-2 HT 2-1 PSG (K) PSG (K) ŞMP-K
18.04.2021 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) 1-2 HT 1-1 PSG (K) PSG (K) ŞMP-K
24.03.2021 PSG (K) PSG (K) 0-1 HT 0-0 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) ŞMP-K
26.08.2020 PSG (K) PSG (K) 0-1 HT 0-0 Lyon (K) Lyon (K) ŞMP-K

Lyon (K) 3-2 PSG (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon (K)
3-2
AWAY PSG (K)
1.64 xG 2.33
58% Ball Possession 42%
22 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 6
329 Passes 230
80% Pass Accuracy 76%
43 Box Touches 29
29 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Lyon (K) vs PSG (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon (K) nicked a narrow win over PSG (K) 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lyon (K) as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lyon (K) had 58% of the ball to PSG (K)'s 42%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 1.64 to 2.33 — on chances, PSG (K) could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon (K) had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lyon (K) and 1.00 for PSG (K).

What was the final score of Lyon (K) vs PSG (K)?

Lyon (K) 3-2 PSG (K) in the Champions League - Women's on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon (K) vs PSG (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Lyon (K) 49%, draw 29%, PSG (K) 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon (K)) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lyon (K)) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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