Genk 2-1 Anderlecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Belgium - Pro League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
39%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.91
Over 2.5
50%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.51
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.4
6+ Goals
9%
12.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 27% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.14
1/2
8%
31.5
1/X
6%
12.9
X/1
19%
5.0
X/2
13%
6.32
X/X
11%
4.73
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
17%
4.36
2/X
6%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-4.0pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.3pp
39%
Away Win
31%
+7.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+1.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-1.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.3pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genk EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Anderlecht EU Bookmakers 34%
+1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -11%
1.62/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.39
+13% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -17% / -2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
340 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 79%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.9
15.8 Crosses 14.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genk
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Anderlecht
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.94 xG 1.15
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
371 Passes 360
83% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
23.12.2023 Anderlecht Anderlecht 2-1 HT 0-0 Genk Genk BEL
03.09.2023 Genk Genk 1-1 HT 0-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
16.04.2023 Genk Genk 5-2 HT 2-1 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEL
21.12.2022 Genk Genk 1-0 HT 0-0 Anderlecht Anderlecht BEK
13.11.2022 Anderlecht Anderlecht 0-2 HT 0-1 Genk Genk BEL
20.02.2022 Anderlecht Anderlecht 2-0 HT 2-0 Genk Genk BEL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genk
2-1
AWAY Anderlecht
54% Ball Possession 46%
20 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Genk vs Anderlecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genk nicked a narrow win over Anderlecht 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 23% / 39% — and on the day Genk made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Genk had 54% of the ball to Anderlecht's 46%, shots finished 20-9.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genk had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Genk and 1.17 for Anderlecht.

What was the final score of Genk vs Anderlecht?

Genk 2-1 Anderlecht in the Belgium - Pro League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genk vs Anderlecht?

Before kick-off our model rated an Anderlecht win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Genk 38%, draw 23%, Anderlecht 39%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Anderlecht) ✗ BTTS No
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