FC Levadia 1-1 Parnu JK Vaprus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.16
Draw
22%
7.13
Away
16%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
Over 2.5
58%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
45%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
6%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
6%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
82%
-19.6pp
22%
Draw
11%
+10.3pp
16%
Away Win
7%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Levadia EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 9%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +21%
2.92/0.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/2.40
+14% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +7%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
402 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Levadia
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.11.2023 FC Levadia FC Levadia 0-0 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
06.08.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-3 HT 0-2 FC Levadia FC Levadia EST1
24.05.2023 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Levadia FC Levadia EST1
05.03.2023 FC Levadia FC Levadia 0-0 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
29.10.2022 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-3 HT 1-0 FC Levadia FC Levadia EST1
12.08.2022 FC Levadia FC Levadia 3-0 HT 2-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Levadia
1-1
AWAY Parnu JK Vaprus
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH FC Levadia vs Parnu JK Vaprus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Levadia and Parnu JK Vaprus shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had FC Levadia at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, FC Levadia had 64% of the ball to Parnu JK Vaprus's 36%, shots finished 11-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Levadia had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for FC Levadia and 0.33 for Parnu JK Vaprus.

What was the final score of FC Levadia vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

FC Levadia 1-1 Parnu JK Vaprus in the Estonia - Premium League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Levadia vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Levadia win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split FC Levadia 62%, draw 22%, Parnu JK Vaprus 16%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (FC Levadia) ✗ Over 2.5
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