VPS 3-2 Gnistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 20 Apr 2024

VPS
3-2 HT 2-1
Gnistan
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Finland - Veikkausliiga – 2024

VPS vs Gnistan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
27%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.85
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.7
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
12.95
X/1
18%
4.66
X/2
8%
7.31
X/X
12%
5.02
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
23.6
2/2
13%
5.08
2/X
5%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.6 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
47%
-1.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
27%
Away Win
27%
-0.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.9pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

VPS v Gnistan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VPS EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Gnistan EU Bookmakers 31%
-1% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+20% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
305 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 75%
29.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
19.7 Crosses –
1.5 Yellow Cards –

VPS vs Gnistan Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VPS
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Gnistan
2.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.80
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.10.2021 Gnistan Gnistan 1-4 HT 1-4 VPS VPS FINY
18.07.2021 Gnistan Gnistan 2-0 HT 1-0 VPS VPS FİN2
12.05.2021 VPS VPS 2-0 HT 0-0 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
25.10.2020 VPS VPS 3-5 HT 3-2 Gnistan Gnistan FİN2
30.08.2020 Gnistan Gnistan 1-2 HT 0-0 VPS VPS FİN2

VPS 3-2 Gnistan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VPS
3-2
AWAY Gnistan
1.66 xG 0.43
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
367 Passes 186
77% Pass Accuracy 63%
27 Box Touches 8
30 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH VPS vs Gnistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VPS nicked a narrow win over Gnistan 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had VPS as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, VPS had 62% of the ball to Gnistan's 38%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.66 to 0.43 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold VPS's control.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, VPS had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.20 goals for VPS and 1.80 for Gnistan.

What was the final score of VPS vs Gnistan?

VPS 3-2 Gnistan in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VPS vs Gnistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a VPS win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split VPS 46%, draw 27%, Gnistan 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (VPS), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (VPS) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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