HJK Helsinki 2-1 IFK Mariehamn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Veikkausliiga, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.42
Draw
24%
4.34
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
24%
4.0
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.11
6+ Goals
13%
10.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.0 — our 24% vs market 19.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.68
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.05
X/1
17%
3.52
X/2
8%
15.2
X/X
11%
6.42
2/1
8%
22.7
2/2
6%
12.2
2/X
8%
19.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
67%
-10.7pp
24%
Draw
20%
+4.1pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+6.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HJK Helsinki EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY IFK Mariehamn EU Bookmakers 16%
+3% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +0%
1.91/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.70
+18% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +2%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
444 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 75%
29.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
16.3 Crosses 12.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HJK Helsinki
4W-1D-1L
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.55 xG 0.35
61% Ball Possession 39%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
489 Passes 125
84% Pass Accuracy 57%
30 Box Touches 5
38 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.01.2024 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 0-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
05.08.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 4-2 HT 2-1 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
27.05.2023 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 0-0 HT 0-0 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
27.01.2023 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 3-0 HT 2-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FLK
30.07.2022 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 1-0 HT 1-0 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn FİN
22.06.2022 IFK Mariehamn IFK Mariehamn 2-1 HT 1-1 HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki FİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HJK Helsinki
2-1
AWAY IFK Mariehamn
56% Ball Possession 44%
22 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 2
471 Passes 354
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
POST-MATCH HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

HJK Helsinki squeezed past IFK Mariehamn 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had HJK Helsinki as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, HJK Helsinki had 56% of the ball to IFK Mariehamn's 44%, shots finished 22-5.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, HJK Helsinki had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for HJK Helsinki and 0.67 for IFK Mariehamn.

What was the final score of HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn?

HJK Helsinki 2-1 IFK Mariehamn in the Finland - Veikkausliiga on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HJK Helsinki vs IFK Mariehamn?

Before kick-off our model rated a HJK Helsinki win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split HJK Helsinki 56%, draw 24%, IFK Mariehamn 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (HJK Helsinki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (HJK Helsinki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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