MVV Maastricht 1-1 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 20 Apr 2024

MVV Maastricht
1-1 HT 1-0
Willem II
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2023/2024

MVV Maastricht vs Willem II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
4.04
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
44%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.38
Over 2.5
58%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.6
No
45%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.98
2-3 Goals
39%
1.95
4-5 Goals
29%
2.77
6+ Goals
9%
7.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
6.71
1/2
7%
19.8
1/X
9%
15.5
X/1
10%
9.78
X/2
12%
4.08
X/X
7%
6.48
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.06
2/X
7%
15.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
22%
+12.5pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.8pp
44%
Away Win
57%
-13.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
38%
+3.9pp
58%
Over 2.5
62%
-3.9pp
55%
BTTS Yes
58%
-3.8pp
45%
BTTS No
42%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MVV Maastricht v Willem II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 61%
+5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -17% / -22%
1.33/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/0.86
+9% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / -13%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
322 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 379 · 79%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
14.4 Crosses 24.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.4

MVV Maastricht vs Willem II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MVV Maastricht
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Willem II
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.00 xG 1.19
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
427 Passes 350
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 19
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
08.09.2023 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 1-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
26.03.2023 Willem II Willem II 2-0 HT 1-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
30.09.2022 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-2 HT 0-2 Willem II Willem II HOL2
14.02.2014 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-2 HT 2-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
25.10.2013 Willem II Willem II 0-0 HT 0-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
16.01.2012 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 3-1 HT 3-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2

MVV Maastricht 1-1 Willem II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME MVV Maastricht
1-1
AWAY Willem II
1.06 xG 1.13
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 24
4 Shots on Target 11
2 Corners 9
261 Passes 399
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 36
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH MVV Maastricht vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht and Willem II shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Willem II at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (58%) missed.

On the day, MVV Maastricht had 41% of the ball to Willem II's 59%, shots finished 12-24, expected goals 1.06 to 1.13.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for MVV Maastricht and 1.50 for Willem II.

What was the final score of MVV Maastricht vs Willem II?

MVV Maastricht 1-1 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MVV Maastricht vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split MVV Maastricht 34%, draw 22%, Willem II 44%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Willem II), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Willem II) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL2 More Netherlands - Eerste Divisie
20 Apr 2024
17:30 ADO Den Haag vs FC Eindhoven Analysis →
22:00 Groningen vs Cambuur Analysis →