Atletico San Luis 1-5 Toluca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 Apr 2024

Atletico San Luis
1-5 HT 1-2
Toluca
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Atletico San Luis vs Toluca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.32
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
43%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.46
No
44%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.43
2-3 Goals
37%
2.0
4-5 Goals
29%
2.67
6+ Goals
12%
6.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
26%
+5.1pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.3pp
43%
Away Win
50%
-7.4pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+5.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-5.1pp
56%
BTTS Yes
64%
-8.6pp
44%
BTTS No
36%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico San Luis v Toluca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico San Luis EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Toluca EU Bookmakers 55%
+1% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -15%
1.16/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.03
+3% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -17%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
303 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 82%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.8
15.3 Crosses 16.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Atletico San Luis vs Toluca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico San Luis
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Toluca
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.36 xG 1.42
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
262 Passes 378
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Box Touches 26
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Toluca Toluca 3-1 HT 1-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
26.02.2023 Toluca Toluca 2-0 HT 2-0 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
22.08.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 1-0 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
13.02.2022 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-1 HT 0-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
26.09.2021 Toluca Toluca 1-2 HT 1-2 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis MEK
06.03.2021 Atletico San Luis Atletico San Luis 0-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK

Atletico San Luis 1-5 Toluca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico San Luis
1-5
AWAY Toluca
0.89 xG 2.57
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 10
9 Corners 3
375 Passes 405
89% Pass Accuracy 88%
18 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico San Luis vs Toluca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Toluca ran out comfortable winners over Atletico San Luis 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Atletico San Luis had 49% of the ball to Toluca's 51%, shots finished 10-13, expected goals 0.89 to 2.57.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Toluca led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Atletico San Luis and 1.17 for Toluca.

What was the final score of Atletico San Luis vs Toluca?

Atletico San Luis 1-5 Toluca in the Mexico - Primera on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico San Luis vs Toluca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Atletico San Luis 32%, draw 26%, Toluca 43%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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