Tijuana 3-1 Puebla — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.53
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.38
Over 2.5
54%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
5.05
2-3 Goals
41%
1.96
4-5 Goals
24%
2.75
6+ Goals
13%
7.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
61%
-9.9pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.3pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
38%
+8.4pp
54%
Over 2.5
62%
-8.4pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tijuana EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Puebla EU Bookmakers 21%
-18% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +4%
1.45/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.64
-33% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
325 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 78%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
24.0 Crosses 16.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tijuana
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Puebla
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.19 xG 1.68
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
267 Passes 315
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 18
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.09.2023 Puebla Puebla 3-0 HT 2-0 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
30.04.2023 Puebla Puebla 5-2 HT 2-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
13.08.2022 Tijuana Tijuana 3-3 HT 1-1 Puebla Puebla MEK
29.01.2022 Puebla Puebla 3-1 HT 0-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
18.08.2021 Tijuana Tijuana 1-1 HT 1-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
23.01.2021 Puebla Puebla 0-1 HT 0-1 Tijuana Tijuana MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tijuana
3-1
AWAY Puebla
2.13 xG 0.83
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 1
428 Passes 185
85% Pass Accuracy 67%
39 Box Touches 9
24 Crosses 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Tijuana vs Puebla
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tijuana got the better of Puebla 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Tijuana as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Tijuana had 65% of the ball to Puebla's 35%, shots finished 19-9, expected goals 2.13 to 0.83.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Tijuana and 2.50 for Puebla.

What was the final score of Tijuana vs Puebla?

Tijuana 3-1 Puebla in the Mexico - Primera on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tijuana vs Puebla?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tijuana win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Tijuana 51%, draw 26%, Puebla 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tijuana), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tijuana) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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