ADT 1-0 Cesar Vallejo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.81
No
61%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
56%
-5.9pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
51%
-12.3pp
61%
BTTS No
49%
+12.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADT EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesar Vallejo EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
1.47/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.61
-17% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / +3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
328 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 75%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
25.2 Crosses 12.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADT
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Cesar Vallejo
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.26 xG 0.80
47% Ball Possession 53%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
251 Passes 300
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
22.08.2023 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 1-1 HT 1-0 ADT ADT PER
31.03.2023 ADT ADT 2-0 HT 2-0 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
16.07.2022 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo 3-2 HT 1-1 ADT ADT PER
12.02.2022 ADT ADT 0-0 HT 0-0 Cesar Vallejo Cesar Vallejo PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADT
1-0
AWAY Cesar Vallejo
1.41 xG 0.28
51% Ball Possession 49%
21 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 0
7 Corners 5
298 Passes 284
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
35 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH ADT vs Cesar Vallejo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADT nicked a narrow win over Cesar Vallejo 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had ADT as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, ADT had 51% of the ball to Cesar Vallejo's 49%, shots finished 21-9, expected goals 1.41 to 0.28.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for ADT and 1.00 for Cesar Vallejo.

What was the final score of ADT vs Cesar Vallejo?

ADT 1-0 Cesar Vallejo in the Peru - Premier League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADT vs Cesar Vallejo?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADT win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split ADT 50%, draw 25%, Cesar Vallejo 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ADT), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (ADT) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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