Cienciano 0-2 Deportivo Garcilaso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.33
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
26%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.07
Over 2.5
46%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
8%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
39%
+5.8pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.1pp
26%
Away Win
35%
-8.9pp
54%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.3pp
51%
BTTS No
42%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cienciano EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso EU Bookmakers 39%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.41/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.03
-9% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / +26%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
278 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 79%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.2
21.5 Crosses 16.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cienciano
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.58 xG 0.66
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
179 Passes 231
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 11
14 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.09.2023 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 0-3 HT 0-1 Cienciano Cienciano PER
07.05.2023 Cienciano Cienciano 0-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cienciano
0-2
AWAY Deportivo Garcilaso
0.92 xG 1.59
66% Ball Possession 34%
12 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 1
388 Passes 192
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
15 Box Touches 15
25 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cienciano vs Deportivo Garcilaso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Deportivo Garcilaso got the better of Cienciano 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Cienciano at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Cienciano had 66% of the ball to Deportivo Garcilaso's 34%, shots finished 12-19, expected goals 0.92 to 1.59.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cienciano had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Cienciano and 0.00 for Deportivo Garcilaso.

What was the final score of Cienciano vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Cienciano 0-2 Deportivo Garcilaso in the Peru - Premier League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cienciano vs Deportivo Garcilaso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cienciano win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Cienciano 45%, draw 29%, Deportivo Garcilaso 26%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Cienciano) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cienciano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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