Penafiel 1-1 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 20 Apr 2024

Penafiel
1-1 HT 0-0
Paços De Ferreira
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Penafiel vs Paços De Ferreira Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.57
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
39%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.75
No
50%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.09
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.79
6+ Goals
9%
16.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.09 — our 29% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
12%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
35%
-3.7pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.1pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+2.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.6pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Penafiel v Paços De Ferreira — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
1.28/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.33
-29% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -61% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
26.6 Crosses 21.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.8

Penafiel vs Paços De Ferreira Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.82 xG 2.65
43% Ball Possession 57%
7 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
267 Passes 373
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
21 Crosses 31
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
09.12.2023 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-1 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
13.10.2019 Penafiel Penafiel 1-2 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira PORLC
17.07.2019 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-2 HT 2-1 Penafiel Penafiel HAZ
08.02.2015 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR
31.08.2014 Penafiel Penafiel 0-1 HT 0-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
05.03.2006 Penafiel Penafiel 2-2 HT 1-2 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR

Penafiel 1-1 Paços De Ferreira — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
1-1
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.42 xG 1.92
35% Ball Possession 65%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
205 Passes 469
73% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel and Paços De Ferreira couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 30% / 39% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Penafiel had 35% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 65%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.42 to 1.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Paços De Ferreira led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Penafiel and 1.83 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs Paços De Ferreira?

Penafiel 1-1 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paços De Ferreira win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 31%, draw 30%, Paços De Ferreira 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paços De Ferreira) ✓ Under 2.5
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