Santa Clara 1-0 Tondela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.47
Draw
29%
3.8
Away
25%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.64
Over 2.5
34%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
2.4
No
65%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
41%
2.62
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
15%
4.48
6+ Goals
7%
23.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.62 — our 41% vs market 32.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
24%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
64%
-17.7pp
29%
Draw
23%
+5.5pp
25%
Away Win
13%
+12.3pp
66%
Under 2.5
57%
+8.8pp
34%
Over 2.5
43%
-8.8pp
35%
BTTS Yes
38%
-2.1pp
65%
BTTS No
62%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santa Clara EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Tondela EU Bookmakers 16%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.52/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.91/1.89
-31% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +79% / -16%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
391 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
19.7 Crosses 11.5
3.3 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santa Clara
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Tondela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.41 xG 1.44
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
364 Passes 281
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2023 Tondela Tondela 2-3 HT 1-1 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR2
29.07.2023 Santa Clara Santa Clara 0-0 HT 0-0 Tondela Tondela PRLK
15.10.2022 Tondela Tondela 2-0 HT 1-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POK
16.01.2022 Santa Clara Santa Clara 2-2 HT 2-0 Tondela Tondela POR
08.08.2021 Tondela Tondela 3-0 HT 1-0 Santa Clara Santa Clara POR
20.03.2021 Santa Clara Santa Clara 1-1 HT 0-1 Tondela Tondela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santa Clara
1-0
AWAY Tondela
1.71 xG 0.33
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
197 Passes 378
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
20 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Santa Clara vs Tondela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santa Clara nicked a narrow win over Tondela 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Santa Clara as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (65%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Santa Clara had 39% of the ball to Tondela's 61%, shots finished 6-6, expected goals 1.71 to 0.33 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Santa Clara's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tondela led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Santa Clara and 1.67 for Tondela.

What was the final score of Santa Clara vs Tondela?

Santa Clara 1-0 Tondela in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santa Clara vs Tondela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santa Clara win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Santa Clara 46%, draw 29%, Tondela 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santa Clara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Santa Clara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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