Boavista 1-1 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 20 Apr 2024

Boavista
1-1 HT 0-0
Estrela
📅20/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Boavista vs Estrela Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
31%
3.04
Away
31%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.6
Over 2.5
46%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.5
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
4.72
6+ Goals
8%
26.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
4.19
1/2
5%
33.5
1/X
8%
13.65
X/1
15%
5.58
X/2
11%
5.2
X/X
10%
3.81
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.79
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
13.55
Value flag · 2/X at 13.55 — our 12% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+4.3pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.9pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-5.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
59%
-5.0pp
46%
Over 2.5
41%
+5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Boavista v Estrela — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boavista EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 40%
+5% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.37/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.28
-4% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -19%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
292 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 76%
16.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
20.8 Crosses 17.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 4.5

Boavista vs Estrela Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boavista
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Estrela
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.79 xG 0.65
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
396 Passes 355
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
15 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Estrela Estrela 3-1 HT 0-0 Boavista Boavista POR

Boavista 1-1 Estrela — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boavista
1-1
AWAY Estrela
1.85 xG 1.06
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
383 Passes 288
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 13
29 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Boavista vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Boavista and Estrela couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 31% / 31% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Boavista had 56% of the ball to Estrela's 44%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.85 to 1.06.

What was the final score of Boavista vs Estrela?

Boavista 1-1 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boavista vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Boavista win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Boavista 38%, draw 31%, Estrela 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Boavista), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Boavista) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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