Sporting Braga 2-1 Vizela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.3
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
17%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.96
Over 2.5
63%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
6.99
2-3 Goals
40%
2.19
4-5 Goals
28%
2.46
6+ Goals
13%
4.84
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.44
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
4%
22.7
X/1
18%
3.67
X/2
4%
21.0
X/X
11%
9.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
19.85
2/2
9%
14.25
2/X
5%
21.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.85 — our 13% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
72%
-9.7pp
21%
Draw
16%
+4.1pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+5.6pp
37%
Under 2.5
30%
+6.9pp
63%
Over 2.5
70%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.9pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Vizela EU Bookmakers 14%
+1% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -11%
2.13/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/2.53
-15% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -28%
63% Ball Possession 37%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
481 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 76%
31.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.8
24.6 Crosses 12.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Vizela
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.93 xG 1.01
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
448 Passes 316
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
08.12.2023 Vizela Vizela 1-3 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
11.03.2023 Vizela Vizela 0-4 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
18.09.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-0 HT 0-0 Vizela Vizela POR
10.04.2022 Vizela Vizela 0-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
23.12.2021 Vizela Vizela 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POK
30.11.2021 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 4-1 HT 2-0 Vizela Vizela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
2-1
AWAY Vizela
2.80 xG 0.78
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
432 Passes 303
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
37 Box Touches 14
34 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Vizela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga squeezed past Vizela 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Sporting Braga as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 58% of the ball to Vizela's 42%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 2.80 to 0.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Sporting Braga's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Sporting Braga and 0.50 for Vizela.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Vizela?

Sporting Braga 2-1 Vizela in the Portugal - Premier League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Vizela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 63%, draw 21%, Vizela 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sporting Braga), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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