BG Pathum United 1-1 Chonburi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Thailand - 1st Division, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.45
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
23%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.29
Over 2.5
63%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
8%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
64%
-8.8pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.9pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.9pp
37%
Under 2.5
40%
-2.3pp
63%
Over 2.5
60%
+2.3pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-3.9pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 69%
Head to Head
AWAY Chonburi EU Bookmakers 19%
+4% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.91/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/1.52
+63% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +42% / -2%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
408 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 75%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.1
24.9 Crosses 13.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BG Pathum United
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Chonburi
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.85 xG 1.04
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
492 Passes 242
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
30 Box Touches 10
23 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2023 Chonburi Chonburi 1-3 HT 0-2 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
31.08.2022 Chonburi Chonburi 1-0 HT 1-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
04.05.2022 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 4-1 HT 1-0 Chonburi Chonburi TAY
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BG Pathum United
1-1
AWAY Chonburi
1.86 xG 1.54
69% Ball Possession 31%
23 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 3
538 Passes 207
91% Pass Accuracy 80%
41 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH BG Pathum United vs Chonburi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United and Chonburi shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had BG Pathum United at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, BG Pathum United had 69% of the ball to Chonburi's 31%, shots finished 23-15, expected goals 1.86 to 1.54.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, BG Pathum United had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for BG Pathum United and 1.00 for Chonburi.

What was the final score of BG Pathum United vs Chonburi?

BG Pathum United 1-1 Chonburi in the Thailand - 1st Division on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum United vs Chonburi?

Before kick-off our model rated a BG Pathum United win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum United 56%, draw 22%, Chonburi 23%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (BG Pathum United) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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