İstanbulspor 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 20 Apr 2024

📅20/04/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
4.13
Draw
20%
3.94
Away
45%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.23
Over 2.5
59%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.66
No
41%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.47
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
29%
2.92
6+ Goals
7%
8.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.84
1/2
10%
23.6
1/X
4%
15.5
X/1
12%
10.05
X/2
14%
3.95
X/X
11%
5.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
34.5
2/2
21%
2.14
2/X
4%
14.6
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 12% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
21%
+14.1pp
20%
Draw
22%
-2.3pp
45%
Away Win
57%
-11.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
-0.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
+0.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
56%
+2.4pp
41%
BTTS No
44%
-2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İstanbulspor EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük EU Bookmakers 62%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-7% / -19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
281 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 399 · 79%
15.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.9 Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İstanbulspor
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.92 xG 1.12
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
348 Passes 376
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2023 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 3-0 HT 1-0 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor TSL
06.08.2023 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor 0-1 HT 0-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük HAZTUR
03.04.2023 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor 0-1 HT 0-1 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük TSL
03.10.2022 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-2 HT 1-0 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor TSL
28.06.2020 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 1-0 HT 0-0 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor T1L
29.11.2019 İstanbulspor İstanbulspor 4-0 HT 2-0 Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İstanbulspor
1-2
AWAY Fatih Karagümrük
2.24 xG 3.56
42% Ball Possession 58%
14 Total Shots 24
5 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 7
259 Passes 402
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
24 Box Touches 43
9 Crosses 34
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fatih Karagümrük edged past İstanbulspor 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fatih Karagümrük as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, İstanbulspor had 42% of the ball to Fatih Karagümrük's 58%, shots finished 14-24, expected goals 2.24 to 3.56 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fatih Karagümrük's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fatih Karagümrük led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for İstanbulspor and 1.17 for Fatih Karagümrük.

What was the final score of İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

İstanbulspor 1-2 Fatih Karagümrük in the Turkey - Super League on 20/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fatih Karagümrük win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split İstanbulspor 35%, draw 20%, Fatih Karagümrük 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fatih Karagümrük) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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