St. Pauli 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Apr 2025

St. Pauli
1-1 HT 0-1
Bayer Leverkusen
📅20/04/2025 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2024/2025

St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.04
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
49%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
1.91
Over
43%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.82
No
57%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
31%
3.34
2-3
39%
1.8
4-5
20%
3.42
6+
10%
13.0
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.34 — our 31% vs market 24.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.69
1/2
7%
23.3
1/X
6%
16.1
X/1
8%
9.59
X/2
20%
4.25
X/X
12%
5.19
2/1
6%
35.0
2/2
22%
2.23
2/X
8%
14.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
22%
+3.9pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
49%
Away Win
54%
-5.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
48%
+8.1pp
43%
Over 2.5
52%
-8.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.6pp
57%
BTTS No
49%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

St. Pauli v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 58%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +27%
1.34/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.01
-99% / +74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / +35%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
281 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 79%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.6
21.1 Crosses 17.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.5

St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME St. Pauli
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.82 xG 0.88
44% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
309 Passes 588
80% Pass Accuracy 89%
18 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
07.12.2024 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 2-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
04.09.2014 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli HAZ
10.04.2011 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
13.11.2010 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
04.08.2007 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AFK
16.02.2002 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-2 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1

St. Pauli 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME St. Pauli
1-1
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.09 xG 0.77
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
348 Passes 502
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli and Bayer Leverkusen couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Bayer Leverkusen at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, St. Pauli had 42% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 58%, shots finished 10-6, expected goals 1.09 to 0.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for St. Pauli and 1.50 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen?

St. Pauli 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for St. Pauli vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split St. Pauli 25%, draw 26%, Bayer Leverkusen 49%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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