Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.3
Draw
25%
4.81
Away
19%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.21
Over 2.5
54%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.42
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
27%
2.98
6+ Goals
13%
8.94
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.67
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
26.0
X/1
23%
3.87
X/2
8%
21.55
X/X
12%
8.54
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
27.0
2/2
7%
17.25
2/X
6%
26.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 27.0 — our 7% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
72%
-15.7pp
24%
Draw
17%
+7.1pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+4.5pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.3pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 14%
-6% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +21%
2.26/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.16
-3% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +107% / +125%
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
483 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 228 · 68%
38.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
21.7 Crosses 9.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
3W-2D-1L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
04.09.2014 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli HAZ
10.04.2011 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 HT 0-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
13.11.2010 St. Pauli St. Pauli 0-1 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
04.08.2007 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AFK
16.02.2002 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-2 HT 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
15.09.2001 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 HT 1-0 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayer Leverkusen
2-1
AWAY St. Pauli
0.88 xG 1.82
63% Ball Possession 37%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
588 Passes 309
89% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 18
9 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bayer Leverkusen vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen squeezed past St. Pauli 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Bayer Leverkusen had 63% of the ball to St. Pauli's 37%, shots finished 6-12, expected goals 0.88 to 1.82 — the balance of chances actually favoured St. Pauli.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.17 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Bayer Leverkusen vs St. Pauli?

Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 St. Pauli in the Germany - Bundesliga on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayer Leverkusen vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Bayer Leverkusen 56%, draw 24%, St. Pauli 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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