Bayern Münih 4-2 Heidenheim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
67%
1.16
Draw
19%
7.13
Away
14%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
33%
3.46
Over 2.5
67%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.95
No
48%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
8.41
2-3 Goals
37%
2.38
4-5 Goals
31%
2.4
6+ Goals
17%
4.12
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.33
1/2
3%
34.5
1/X
7%
34.5
X/1
14%
4.22
X/2
5%
34.5
X/X
8%
15.9
2/1 EV+ ✗
15%
26.5
2/2
5%
31.5
2/X
5%
34.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 15% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
67%
Home Win
82%
-15.3pp
20%
Draw
11%
+8.2pp
14%
Away Win
7%
+7.2pp
33%
Under 2.5
25%
+7.5pp
67%
Over 2.5
75%
-7.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.9pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 9%
-4% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
2.79/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/2.94
+32% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +130% / -28%
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
526 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 73%
41.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.0
22.1 Crosses 14.3
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bayern Münih
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Heidenheim
3.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
2.74 xG 1.49
69% Ball Possession 31%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
620 Passes 226
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
41 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Heidenheim Heidenheim 3-2 HT 0-2 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih AL1
11.11.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-2 HT 2-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
03.04.2019 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 5-4 HT 1-2 Heidenheim Heidenheim AFK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bayern Münih
4-2
AWAY Heidenheim
2.42 xG 1.29
82% Ball Possession 18%
21 Total Shots 2
10 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 0
923 Passes 136
93% Pass Accuracy 66%
38 Box Touches 5
25 Crosses 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Bayern Münih vs Heidenheim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayern Münih beat Heidenheim 4-2. Half-time: 1-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Bayern Münih as the likeliest winner at 67%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (67%) came in.

On the day, Bayern Münih had 82% of the ball to Heidenheim's 18%, shots finished 21-2, expected goals 2.42 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.67 goals for Bayern Münih and 3.00 for Heidenheim.

What was the final score of Bayern Münih vs Heidenheim?

Bayern Münih 4-2 Heidenheim in the Germany - Bundesliga on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bayern Münih vs Heidenheim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 67%, with the full match-result split Bayern Münih 67%, draw 20%, Heidenheim 14%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayern Münih), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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