Heidenheim 3-2 Bayern Münih — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 6 Apr 2024

Heidenheim
3-2 HT 0-2
Bayern Münih
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Heidenheim vs Bayern Münih Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
5.09
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
57%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
35%
2.89
Over 2.5
65%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.55
No
41%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
6.83
2-3 Goals
29%
2.17
4-5 Goals
34%
2.48
6+ Goals
19%
4.96
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
8.96
1/2
6%
18.5
1/X
9%
17.2
X/1
5%
13.8
X/2
18%
3.94
X/X
8%
8.08
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
33%
1.69
2/X
4%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
16%
+6.0pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.7pp
57%
Away Win
65%
-8.7pp
35%
Under 2.5
31%
+4.2pp
65%
Over 2.5
69%
-4.2pp
59%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.5pp
41%
BTTS No
40%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Heidenheim v Bayern Münih — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Heidenheim EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayern Münih EU Bookmakers 70%
+76% / +76% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -28%
1.23/2.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.29/1.25
+84% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -31%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
317 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 81%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.8
25.0 Crosses 17.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Heidenheim vs Bayern Münih Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Heidenheim
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Bayern Münih
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.50
1.52 xG 3.17
30% Ball Possession 70%
10 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 8
224 Passes 642
74% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 42
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 4-2 HT 2-0 Heidenheim Heidenheim AL1
03.04.2019 Bayern Münih Bayern Münih 5-4 HT 1-2 Heidenheim Heidenheim AFK

Heidenheim 3-2 Bayern Münih — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Heidenheim
3-2
AWAY Bayern Münih
1.44 xG 1.89
33% Ball Possession 67%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 3
229 Passes 574
74% Pass Accuracy 87%
21 Box Touches 40
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Heidenheim vs Bayern Münih
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Heidenheim nicked a narrow win over Bayern Münih 3-2. It was 0-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Bayern Münih carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (65%), both teams to score (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Heidenheim had 33% of the ball to Bayern Münih's 67%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 1.44 to 1.89 — on chances, Bayern Münih could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Bayern Münih led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Heidenheim and 4.50 for Bayern Münih.

What was the final score of Heidenheim vs Bayern Münih?

Heidenheim 3-2 Bayern Münih in the Germany - Bundesliga on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Heidenheim vs Bayern Münih?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayern Münih win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Heidenheim 22%, draw 21%, Bayern Münih 57%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bayern Münih) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bayern Münih) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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