Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Union Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-0
HT 1-0
Union Berlin
AL1
0-0
HT 0-0
Bayer Leverkusen
AL1
5-0
HT 0-0
Union Berlin
AL1
2-2
HT 1-1
Union Berlin
AL1
1-1
HT 1-1
Bayer Leverkusen
AL1
1-1
HT 1-0
Union Berlin
AL1
Union Berlin 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics
Bayer Leverkusen squeezed past Union Berlin 1-0 away from home.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Union Berlin had 34% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 66%, shots finished 9-20, expected goals 0.32 to 3.00 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Bayer Leverkusen's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Union Berlin and 2.17 for Bayer Leverkusen.
What was the final score of Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Union Berlin 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Union Berlin 28%, draw 22%, Bayer Leverkusen 50%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.