Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Stuttgart — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 6 Apr 2024

Borussia Dortmund
0-1 HT 0-0
Stuttgart
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Borussia Dortmund vs Stuttgart Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
33%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.89
Over 2.5
53%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.39
No
48%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.94
2-3 Goals
39%
2.18
4-5 Goals
26%
2.47
6+ Goals
13%
4.89
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.47
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
28.5
1/X
11%
12.8
X/1
8%
5.01
X/2
12%
7.93
X/X
8%
6.59
2/1
7%
19.55
2/2
13%
4.61
2/X
6%
12.95
Value flag · 1/2 at 28.5 — our 8% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.1pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.1pp
33%
Away Win
28%
+5.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
31%
+15.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
69%
-15.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
68%
-15.9pp
48%
BTTS No
32%
+15.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Borussia Dortmund v Stuttgart — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Stuttgart EU Bookmakers 32%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +21%
2.06/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.57/1.22
+19% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / +11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
356 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 78%
27.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.8
15.6 Crosses 15.7
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.1

Borussia Dortmund vs Stuttgart Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Stuttgart
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.75 xG 1.97
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
482 Passes 397
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.12.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-0 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK
11.11.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 2-1 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
15.04.2023 Stuttgart Stuttgart 3-3 HT 0-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
22.10.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 5-0 HT 3-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1
08.04.2022 Stuttgart Stuttgart 0-2 HT 0-1 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
20.11.2021 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 2-1 HT 0-0 Stuttgart Stuttgart AL1

Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Stuttgart — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
0-1
AWAY Stuttgart
2.48 xG 1.56
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
432 Passes 415
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
39 Box Touches 17
28 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Stuttgart
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stuttgart nicked a narrow win over Borussia Dortmund 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Borussia Dortmund at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 51% of the ball to Stuttgart's 49%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.48 to 1.56 — the balance of chances actually favoured Borussia Dortmund.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.33 for Stuttgart.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Stuttgart?

Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Stuttgart in the Germany - Bundesliga on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Stuttgart?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 42%, draw 24%, Stuttgart 33%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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