Freiburg 1-4 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 6 Apr 2024

Freiburg
1-4 HT 0-3
RB Leipzig
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
4.48
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
45%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.51
Over 2.5
63%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.56
No
39%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.56
2-3 Goals
37%
2.02
4-5 Goals
30%
2.64
6+ Goals
15%
6.31
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
7.49
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
19.65
1/X
7%
15.35
X/1
9%
11.15
X/2
8%
4.11
X/X
7%
6.69
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
26%
1.92
2/X
11%
15.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.65 — our 12% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
20%
+9.7pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.0pp
45%
Away Win
59%
-13.8pp
37%
Under 2.5
36%
+0.9pp
63%
Over 2.5
64%
-0.9pp
61%
BTTS Yes
60%
+1.3pp
39%
BTTS No
40%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Freiburg v RB Leipzig — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Freiburg EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 62%
+14% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
1.05/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/1.10
+3% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +7%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
333 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 456 · 82%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.9
15.7 Crosses 16.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.6

Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Freiburg
0W-2D-4L
AWAY RB Leipzig
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.75 xG 1.94
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
297 Passes 481
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 28
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 1-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
06.05.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 0-1 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
02.05.2023 Freiburg Freiburg 1-5 HT 0-4 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AFK
09.11.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 0-0 Freiburg Freiburg AL1
21.05.2022 Freiburg Freiburg 1-1 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AFK
05.03.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-1 HT 0-1 Freiburg Freiburg AL1

Freiburg 1-4 RB Leipzig — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Freiburg
1-4
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.64 xG 2.35
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
347 Passes 416
85% Pass Accuracy 88%
25 Box Touches 31
25 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Freiburg vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig cruised past Freiburg 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Freiburg had 47% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 53%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.64 to 2.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Freiburg and 2.33 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?

Freiburg 1-4 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Freiburg vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated an RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Freiburg 29%, draw 26%, RB Leipzig 45%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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