Mainz 05 4-0 Darmstadt 98 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 6 Apr 2024

Mainz 05
4-0 HT 1-0
Darmstadt 98
📅06/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Mainz 05 vs Darmstadt 98 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.76
No
58%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.54
2-3 Goals
41%
1.9
4-5 Goals
22%
2.89
6+ Goals
10%
8.31
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.54 — our 27% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.73
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.95
X/1
17%
3.66
X/2
7%
13.75
X/X
9%
6.77
2/1
8%
21.1
2/2
7%
10.4
2/X
6%
18.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
66%
-8.5pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.8pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
53%
-11.3pp
58%
BTTS No
47%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mainz 05 v Darmstadt 98 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mainz 05 EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Darmstadt 98 EU Bookmakers 18%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
2.17/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/1.88
+4% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +35%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
382 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 70%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
22.4 Crosses 14.3
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7

Mainz 05 vs Darmstadt 98 Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mainz 05
2W-2D-1L
AWAY Darmstadt 98
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.67 xG 0.49
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
295 Passes 226
73% Pass Accuracy 65%
26 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 0-0 HT 0-0 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
11.03.2017 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 2-1 HT 2-1 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1
16.10.2016 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 2-1 HT 1-0 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 AL1
06.03.2016 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 0-0 HT 0-0 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 AL1
02.10.2015 Darmstadt 98 Darmstadt 98 2-3 HT 1-2 Mainz 05 Mainz 05 AL1

Mainz 05 4-0 Darmstadt 98 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mainz 05
4-0
AWAY Darmstadt 98
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 14
9 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 1
423 Passes 254
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
POST-MATCH Mainz 05 vs Darmstadt 98
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mainz 05 ran out comfortable winners over Darmstadt 98 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Mainz 05 as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Mainz 05 had 60% of the ball to Darmstadt 98's 40%, shots finished 18-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Mainz 05 had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Mainz 05 and 1.00 for Darmstadt 98.

What was the final score of Mainz 05 vs Darmstadt 98?

Mainz 05 4-0 Darmstadt 98 in the Germany - Bundesliga on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mainz 05 vs Darmstadt 98?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mainz 05 win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Mainz 05 57%, draw 23%, Darmstadt 98 20%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mainz 05), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Mainz 05) ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AL1 More Germany - Bundesliga
6 Apr 2024
16:30 Köln vs Bochum Analysis →
16:30 Heidenheim vs Bayern Münih Analysis →
16:30 Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Analysis →
16:30 Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Analysis →
19:30 Borussia Dortmund vs Stuttgart Analysis →