Holstein Kiel 0-2 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 7 Dec 2024

📅07/12/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.09
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
49%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.38
Over 2.5
50%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.66
No
51%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
5.02
2-3 Goals
41%
1.97
4-5 Goals
21%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.41
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.02 — our 26% vs market 15.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
10.0
1/2
8%
23.4
1/X
9%
19.15
X/1
14%
14.1
X/2
13%
4.36
X/X
13%
7.57
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.0
2/X
4%
18.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
17%
+8.9pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.2pp
49%
Away Win
63%
-14.1pp
50%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.3pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Holstein Kiel EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 67%
-38% / -38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
1.37/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.15
-100% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +22%
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
250 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 474 · 82%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.3
24.0 Crosses 16.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Holstein Kiel
0W-0D-2L
AWAY RB Leipzig
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
22.02.2014 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel 0-2 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL3
03.09.2013 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 0-1 Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Holstein Kiel
0-2
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.17 xG 1.60
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 1
385 Passes 308
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 14
21 Crosses 7
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig saw off Holstein Kiel 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Holstein Kiel had 56% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 44%, shots finished 17-9, expected goals 1.17 to 1.60.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Holstein Kiel and 2.50 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig?

Holstein Kiel 0-2 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 07/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Holstein Kiel vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated an RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Holstein Kiel 25%, draw 26%, RB Leipzig 49%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✓ BTTS No
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