Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Mönchengladbach — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.81
Away
17%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under
36%
3.17
Over Pick
64%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1
20%
7.77
2-3
34%
2.31
4-5
28%
2.37
6+
18%
4.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.62
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
11%
17.0
X/1
18%
4.35
X/2
4%
15.1
X/X
5%
9.15
2/1
7%
17.05
2/2
9%
10.45
2/X
5%
19.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 64%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
68%
-6.2pp
21%
Draw
17%
+3.3pp
17%
Away Win
14%
+3.0pp
36%
Under 2.5
28%
+8.1pp
64%
Over 2.5
72%
-8.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-9.0pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 18%
-1% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
2.36/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/2.16
+23% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -16%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
471 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 77%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
19.2 Crosses 12.9
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Mönchengladbach
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.95 xG 1.37
55% Ball Possession 45%
20 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
460 Passes 355
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
33 Box Touches 23
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
07.12.2024 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-1 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
13.04.2024 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-2 HT 1-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
25.11.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 4-2 HT 3-2 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
13.05.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 5-2 HT 4-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
11.11.2022 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 4-2 HT 3-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
20.02.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 6-0 HT 2-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund
3-2
AWAY Mönchengladbach
1.44 xG 1.41
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
461 Passes 277
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
37 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund vs Mönchengladbach
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund nicked a narrow win over Mönchengladbach 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (64%) came in.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund had 59% of the ball to Mönchengladbach's 41%, shots finished 14-6, expected goals 1.44 to 1.41.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.67 for Mönchengladbach.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund vs Mönchengladbach?

Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Mönchengladbach in the Germany - Bundesliga on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund vs Mönchengladbach?

Before kick-off our model rated a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund 62%, draw 21%, Mönchengladbach 17%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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