Mönchengladbach 1-2 Borussia Dortmund — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 13 Apr 2024

Mönchengladbach
1-2 HT 1-2
Borussia Dortmund
📅13/04/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
42%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
62%
1.46
No
38%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.55
2-3 Goals
41%
2.02
4-5 Goals
27%
2.65
6+ Goals
12%
6.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.72
1/2
7%
20.9
1/X
7%
12.9
X/1
10%
7.65
X/2
15%
4.91
X/X
11%
5.95
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
30.0
2/2
19%
2.56
2/X
8%
12.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.0 — our 8% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+3.5pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.7pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-5.2pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+4.5pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-4.5pp
62%
BTTS Yes
64%
-3.0pp
38%
BTTS No
36%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mönchengladbach EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Borussia Dortmund EU Bookmakers 51%
-3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%
1.55/1.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.72/1.44
+11% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +4%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
321 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 425 · 81%
24.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
16.1 Crosses 14.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mönchengladbach
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.43 xG 2.86
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 6
394 Passes 426
84% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 4-2 HT 3-2 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
13.05.2023 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 5-2 HT 4-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
11.11.2022 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 4-2 HT 3-2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
20.02.2022 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 6-0 HT 2-0 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach AL1
25.09.2021 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 1-0 HT 1-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AL1
02.03.2021 Mönchengladbach Mönchengladbach 0-1 HT 0-0 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund AFK

Mönchengladbach 1-2 Borussia Dortmund — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mönchengladbach
1-2
AWAY Borussia Dortmund
1.17 xG 1.33
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 4
361 Passes 447
83% Pass Accuracy 85%
31 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund edged past Mönchengladbach 2-1 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Borussia Dortmund as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (62%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Mönchengladbach had 46% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund's 54%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 1.17 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Mönchengladbach and 3.00 for Borussia Dortmund.

What was the final score of Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?

Mönchengladbach 1-2 Borussia Dortmund in the Germany - Bundesliga on 13/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?

Before kick-off our model rated an Borussia Dortmund win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Mönchengladbach 32%, draw 26%, Borussia Dortmund 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Borussia Dortmund), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Borussia Dortmund) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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