Erzgebirge Aue vs Borussia Dortmund II Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Erzgebirge Aue v Borussia Dortmund II — Team-Based Signals
Erzgebirge Aue vs Borussia Dortmund II Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings
2-0
HT 2-0
Borussia Dortmund II
AL3
3-3
HT 1-1
Borussia Dortmund II
AL3
0-1
HT 0-0
Erzgebirge Aue
AL3
Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Borussia Dortmund II — Actual Match Statistics
Erzgebirge Aue edged past Borussia Dortmund II 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Erzgebirge Aue as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 46% of the ball to Borussia Dortmund II's 54%, shots finished 12-6.
For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Erzgebirge Aue had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 1.60 for Borussia Dortmund II.
What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Borussia Dortmund II?
Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Borussia Dortmund II in the Germany - 3rd Division on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Borussia Dortmund II?
Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 43%, draw 26%, Borussia Dortmund II 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.