Vila Nova 2-0 Botafogo SP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 20 Apr 2025

Vila Nova
2-0 HT 2-0
Botafogo SP
📅20/04/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie B – 2025

Vila Nova vs Botafogo SP Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
31%
2.94
Away
29%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
63%
1.41
Over
37%
2.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.4
No
58%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1
36%
1.91
2-3
39%
1.81
4-5
17%
6.42
6+
8%
35.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
13%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 63% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-6.8pp
31%
Draw
30%
+0.7pp
29%
Away Win
23%
+6.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
67%
-4.0pp
37%
Over 2.5
33%
+4.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
38%
+4.5pp
58%
BTTS No
62%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vila Nova v Botafogo SP — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 26%
-2% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +19%
1.15/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.02
-17% / +24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 251 · 73%
17.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
20.4 Crosses 16.6
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.1

Vila Nova vs Botafogo SP Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Botafogo SP
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.50 xG 0.76
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
314 Passes 300
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
28.09.2024 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 1-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
16.06.2024 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
12.10.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 3-1 HT 2-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
24.06.2023 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-3 HT 0-2 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
18.09.2019 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-2 HT 0-2 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
19.05.2019 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-1 HT 0-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2

Vila Nova 2-0 Botafogo SP — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
2-0
AWAY Botafogo SP
2.19 xG 0.21
49% Ball Possession 51%
19 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 6
294 Passes 298
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 9
20 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Botafogo SP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova beat Botafogo SP 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 31% / 29% — and on the day Vila Nova made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (58%) came in.

On the day, Vila Nova had 49% of the ball to Botafogo SP's 51%, shots finished 19-5, expected goals 2.19 to 0.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vila Nova had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Vila Nova and 0.83 for Botafogo SP.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Botafogo SP?

Vila Nova 2-0 Botafogo SP in the Brazil - Serie B on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Botafogo SP?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 40%, draw 31%, Botafogo SP 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vila Nova), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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