Vila Nova 1-1 Botafogo SP — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.8
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.59
Over
42%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.46
2-3
38%
1.78
4-5
20%
4.84
6+
9%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
52%
-5.7pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.3pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+5.4pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.1pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.0pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Botafogo SP EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.16/0.71 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.01
-24% / +47% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 78%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.1
20.6 Crosses 17.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vila Nova
3W-0D-2L
AWAY Botafogo SP
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
1.57 xG 0.74
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
326 Passes 311
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
17 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
16.06.2024 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 1-0 HT 1-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
12.10.2023 Vila Nova Vila Nova 3-1 HT 2-0 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
24.06.2023 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-3 HT 0-2 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
18.09.2019 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-2 HT 0-2 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP BR2
19.05.2019 Botafogo SP Botafogo SP 0-1 HT 0-1 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vila Nova
1-1
AWAY Botafogo SP
1.17 xG 0.82
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 4
254 Passes 248
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
18 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Vila Nova vs Botafogo SP
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vila Nova and Botafogo SP shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Vila Nova at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (58%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Vila Nova had 51% of the ball to Botafogo SP's 49%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.17 to 0.82.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Vila Nova had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Vila Nova and 0.80 for Botafogo SP.

What was the final score of Vila Nova vs Botafogo SP?

Vila Nova 1-1 Botafogo SP in the Brazil - Serie B on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vila Nova vs Botafogo SP?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vila Nova win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Vila Nova 46%, draw 29%, Botafogo SP 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Vila Nova), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vila Nova) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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