Paysandu vs Ituano Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Paysandu v Ituano — Team-Based Signals
Paysandu vs Ituano Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
Paysandu 1-0 Ituano — Actual Match Statistics
Paysandu nicked a narrow win over Ituano 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Paysandu as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Paysandu had 51% of the ball to Ituano's 49%, shots finished 18-13, expected goals 1.29 to 1.10.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Paysandu and 3.00 for Ituano.
What was the final score of Paysandu vs Ituano?
Paysandu 1-0 Ituano in the Brazil - Serie B on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Paysandu vs Ituano?
Before kick-off our model rated a Paysandu win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Paysandu 47%, draw 25%, Ituano 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paysandu), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.