Ceara 1-0 Brusque — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.42
Draw
28%
4.19
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.71
Over
42%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.51
No
53%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1
32%
2.76
2-3
41%
1.77
4-5
19%
4.24
6+
8%
20.9
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.76 — our 32% vs market 30.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
67%
-17.2pp
28%
Draw
21%
+6.6pp
22%
Away Win
12%
+10.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
55%
+3.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
45%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
36%
+11.1pp
53%
BTTS No
64%
-11.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Brusque EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -11%
1.39/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.69/1.62
+23% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / -18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
373 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.6
22.0 Crosses 13.2
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceara
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Brusque
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.42 xG 1.16
47% Ball Possession 53%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 4
273 Passes 360
72% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 17
15 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.06.2024 Brusque Brusque 1-0 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BR2
24.09.2020 Ceara Ceara 5-1 HT 1-1 Brusque Brusque BRK
17.09.2020 Brusque Brusque 0-2 HT 0-1 Ceara Ceara BRK
08.02.2018 Brusque Brusque 0-1 HT 0-0 Ceara Ceara BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
1-0
AWAY Brusque
0.79 xG 0.69
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 5
313 Passes 236
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 10
27 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Brusque
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara nicked a narrow win over Brusque 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ceara as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Ceara had 54% of the ball to Brusque's 46%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 0.79 to 0.69.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Ceara had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Ceara and 0.50 for Brusque.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Brusque?

Ceara 1-0 Brusque in the Brazil - Serie B on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Brusque?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Ceara 50%, draw 28%, Brusque 22%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ceara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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